Quantitative Working Papers & Policy Memoranda

Empirical microdata investigations, national trade flow econometric modeling, and capital goods amortization. Bridging statistical rigor with industrial economics to provide verifiable evidence for executive industrial policymaking.

• Dataset 01: BPS Transactional Microdata (Dataexim 2019–2025)• Dataset 02: IBS Manufacturing Census & Input-Output Tables• Modeling: Panel Gravity Regressions & DSCR Stress Testing

CATALOG //REGISTERED WORKING PAPERS

SHOWING 2 OF 2 PAPERS

WP-2026-W01FLAGSHIP WORKING PAPER • BPS MICRODATA

Published Working Paper • Verified Dataexim Linkage

Anatomy of Indonesian Mineral Downstreaming (2019–2025 BPS Microdata): Trade Balance Resilience, Smelter Margins, and Bank Syndication Credit Exposure

Empirical evaluation of export structural breaks, HHI destination market concentration, and smelter credit sensitivity across Central/South Sulawesi and North Maluku.

Synthesizes monthly transactional trade microdata from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) spanning 2019 through 2025 to evaluate the structural economic shock of Indonesia's raw mineral export bans. Analyzes product-level HS code transformations (nickel matte, ferro-nickel, NPI, and chemical compounds), destination concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), port logistics shifts toward Eastern Indonesia, and syndication debt coverage under global LME cyclical swings.

Export Value Surge+249.9%Cumulative export receipt expansion (HS 7501/7502)

Market ConcentrationHHI 3,584.2Top destination absorption dependency

Spatial Reorientation82.4% SharePort departures concentrated in Eastern corridors

#Econometrics#BPS Dataexim#Nickel Downstreaming#HHI Analysis#Trade Gravity

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WP-2026-W02PUBLISHED WORKING PAPER • BPS WEBAPI MICRODATA

Published Working Paper • Interactive Workbench Active

Capital Goods & Fleet Market Dynamics: Empirical Econometrics of Foreign Trade Influx, Fleet Aging Cohorts, and Regional PDRB Elasticities (2018–2026)

Macroeconomic import supercycle, China-Japan origin inversion, 43% peak wear aftermarket surge, and 38-province credit underwriting directives.

Synthesizes $20.55B in BPS transactional customs microdata (HS 8429 machinery & HS 8431 parts) and 38-province PDRB ADHK accounts. Explores the commodity-accelerator import peak of 2022 ($2.73B, 30,819 units) and 2025 rebound ($2.42B), China's market share expansion to 48.4%, and the commercial implications of 43.0% of the active machinery fleet reaching years 2–4 wear peak.

Machinery Import Influx$16.86B186,888 estimated equipment units (2018–2026)

Fleet at Wear Peak43.0% ShareEntering 4,000–8,000 hr component wear cycle

Extractive EpicenterScore 64.0Kalimantan Timur (#1 of 38 provinces in capital absorption)

#Capital Goods#BPS WebAPI#Fleet Demographics#Aftermarket Forecast#PDRB Econometrics#DCF Feasibility

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EMPIRICAL REPLICATION • OPEN METHODOLOGY

Methodological Transparency & Computational Pipelines

Full empirical replication scripts, data ingestion routines for BPS Dataexim microdata, Herfindahl concentration calculation code, and econometric models are published open-source.

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